The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency have not historically seen eye to eye, but now the gulf between their forecasts of how much oil the world will need in 2024 is oddly wide, especially for this late in the year, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The IEA thinks an additional 900,000 barrels of oil a day will be needed by consumers in 2024. OPEC is far more bullish and expects 2 million extra barrels will be required.
While there is usually a gap between the two organizations’ annual demand estimates when they are first released, those estimates tend to converge as economic data rolls in throughout the year.
Other than modest adjustments, that hasn’t happened in 2024. Stripping out 2020 to 2022, when pandemic lockdowns made it especially hard to forecast oil demand, the two organizations’ estimates have never been more than 350,000 barrels apart by September any year since 2010.
